Dustin Dominiak CFB Week 8 Picks

18 October – update with picks for Saturday games

  • Oklahoma -32.5
  • Clemson -24
  • Boston College +3
  • Arkansas +20
  • Wisconsin -31
  • Miami Ohio +3
  • Wyoming -19
  • Duke +3
  • Utah State -21

17 October – update

After cashing last nights ticket, here are the plays for Thursday and Friday night.

  • UCLA/Stanford UNDER 50 – Total has come down from 55, and is receiving 67% of the money compared to 59% of bets. This indicates smart money on the under. Also, wind is expected to be 10 – 15 mph tonight, which makes it more difficult to pass, and cashes under plays at 56% clip.
  • FAU – 5.5 vs Marshall – Marshall is not that good, and FAU seems to have it clicking on offense again this year. There is also 13% more money bet on FAU than tickets placed, which is clearly showing where the smart money is on this game.
  • Northwestern +28 vs Ohio State – the OSU offense has to hit a speed bump at some time, when better than laying 28 points on the road against a strong defense.
  • UNLV/Fresno State UNDER 53 – money is coming in on the under with 9% more cash than tickets wagered on the UNDER. This has moved the line from the open of 55.

16 October

Just like last week, the Sun Belt conferences desire to get national televised games, bring us Wednesday night football. It’s the start to 6 straight days of football. Here is a pick for Wednesday’s night game, line from Draftkings NJ app

  • South Alabama at Troy UNDER 57 total points – not sure how USA scores enough for this total to go over. Seems like a 35-17 game based on line, maybe 35-21. Line has bounced between 57 and 55.5 showing the sharp betting window, and pegging this game at 56. That aligns with the 35-21 score, so need the full 57. Also, 57% of bets have been on UNDER but more importantly 61% of the money is on the UNDER. The percentage discrepancy is based on larger bets being placed on the UNDER. Who places larger bets? People a whole lot smarter than me at this. Follow the money.

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